Ukraine ceasefire to increase Russian threat in Baltic region, ministers warn

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A ceasefire in Ukraine will dramatically increase the security threat to Baltic nations, as Russia will proceed with plans to re-arm and redeploy troops to Nato’s north-eastern flank, the region’s defence ministers have warned. 

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which were annexed by the Soviet Union before regaining independence in the 1990s, are worried that Moscow will not stop at Ukraine once the Trump administration brokers a ceasefire. The Baltic nations point out that the Kremlin has already laid out plans for increased military production and additional troops along their borders.

“We all understand that when the war in Ukraine will be stopped, Russia will redistribute its forces very quickly,” Estonian defence minister Hanno Pevkur told the Financial Times. “That means also the threat level will increase significantly very quickly.”

His Lithuanian counterpart, Dovilė Šakalienė, made similar remarks while in the UK earlier in the week.

“Let’s not have any illusions. Let’s not lie to ourselves that Russia is going to be done after Ukraine,” she said. “Russia will use this time following a ceasefire to speed up its military capabilities. They already have a huge, battlefield-trained army, which is going to get even bigger.”

The Trump administration has led talks with both Russia and Ukraine on ending the war, but a full ceasefire is still seen as far off. While Kyiv agreed to an immediate cessation of hostilities in the Black Sea and a US-backed 30-day ceasefire, Moscow has so far only pledged to pause attacks on energy infrastructure, saying it would comply with the Black Sea deal only after the west lifted economic sanctions.

Still, a halt in fighting would give Russia a chance to fulfil its 2022 plans to raise a 1.5mn strong army and add an entire new army corps in the north, doubling the number of troops near Finland and the Baltics.

Pevkur said that of the 600,000 Russian troops currently estimated to be in Ukraine, 300,000 would probably be redeployed. “These men will not go back to different parts of Russia to harvest the corn or do something else because the salary they are getting in the army is like five to 10 times more than what they could get in their home town.”

Baltic countries are particularly worried about a large-scale military exercise known as Zapad to be held close to their borders in Russia and Belarus this autumn. Held every four years, the drills simulate a conflict with Nato countries and include tens of thousands of troops, tanks, aircraft, and artillery.

Both ministers also warned against redeploying any Nato troops from their countries to form a so-called European “reassurance force” to be sent to post-conflict Ukraine as a means to deter Russia from attacking again.

“We cannot jeopardise the security of the eastern flank of Nato,” Pevkur said. “We cannot fall into the trap that our forces are somehow fixed in Ukraine. Then we will have risks at our border.”

Nato’s eastern flank nations, including Poland and Romania, have said they could not commit to deploying troops in Ukraine at the expense of their own security. Estonia has also objected to plans by the UK to redeploy to Ukraine British forces earmarked for Baltic defence.

Currently, Lithuania is defended by a German brigade which is set to be stationed on its soil in coming months, Latvia is protected by a multinational force led by Canada and Estonia is safeguarded by a British brigade that can be dispatched from the UK at short notice.

“We’ve got just under a thousand UK troops in Estonia at the moment,” British defence secretary John Healey said earlier this week. “That consistent ironclad commitment to Estonia will continue — and it will continue because Estonia and our troops . . . are on the front line of Nato.”